Today’s post, which is a day later than intended, will include something on the following:
1) The terrorist attacks
2) More about Gordon Brown
3) Reprisals in Afghanistan
4) Sovereign Wealth Funds
5) Closer to home stuff
hmm, another wet Sunday followed by another wet Monday. Not a lot to stimulate in yesterday’s paper. The car attacks in London and Scotland seemed like more of what we’d had before and I don’t think people had appreciated the significance of that ‘critical’ security situation rating. It certainly seemed to be a million miles away from those attending the Diana concert. The attacks have not only been
successful but seem inarticulate, too. Had they been successful, would someone have claimed the ‘credit’? Presumably, the attacks have something to do with the changeover in No.10 (and in Scotland’s First Minister?). On the lunchtime news Lord Carlisle was being interviewed and he said that the degree of ‘foreign-ness’ of the captured terrorists would give some indication of the level of Al Qaeda involvement and the degree of organisation. I understood him to mean that the less the prisoners had had to do with the UK before their attack the more Al Qaeda was likely to implicated and the more sophisticated (and worrying) the attacks were. I’m not sure I quite follow this. Presumably, even low level extremists could make their way here from the continent. Also, thankfully the attacks weren’t successful so this may indicate that the perpetrators weren’t ‘top-notch’ but it can’t be in al Qaeda’s interests to discourage sympathisers from action completely. There again, failed attempts might be calculated to lull people into a false sense of security.
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What does Gordon Brown intend people to understand by casting his net wider than the Labour Party? The real significance of the appointments of Sir Digby Jones and Shirley Williams might be that something has broken inside the party political system. This is the equivalent of a worrying noise from the gas boiler or a new light on the dashboard that sends you delving into the manufacturers handbook. An earlier symptom was the lack of people willing to challenge Gordon Brown’s candidacy for leader of the Labour Party. To mix metaphors, the party system just isn’t producing enough friction any more. For the time being it’s still a working system of patronage but it’s not doing enough to guarantee freedom or democracy any more. It will be interesting to see what the new Prime Minister’s constitutional reforms plan to do about the democratic system. I expect that there will be bigger dollops of public money for the political parties. The real flash points are going to be outside Parliament over subjects such as asylum seekers, national security and the Trident replacement. The judges will be in the eye of the storm.
There’s one issue where there’s been too much carping. The media seem to have agreed that Gordon Brown can’t be a harbinger of change because he’s been in government for so long. But leaving aside the fact that the new Prime Minister may been keeping some of his cleverest ideas close to his chest so that they weren’t nicked, surely everyone is entitled to a fresh start every few years.
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Ysterday’s paper also covered civilian casualties caused by the Americans in Helmand. The pattern seems to be that US forces flush the Taliban out from wherever they’ve chosen to attack from; normally somewhere in the open country. The Taliban then have choice between fleeing out of range or making to the nearest village where they can mingle in with the local population, who are either sympathetic or too frightened to object. Then the Americans strike against the village and the Taliban score as great a propaganda coup as if they had defeated the allies in combat.
Surely, the Americans should be able to develop tactics that don’t play out this way. Before World War II the military used to use a system called ‘aerial proscription* along the North West Frontier to counteract rebellions. The air force would carry out a leaflet drop telling the local population of an unruly district that from a certain date they would be required to remove themselves (families and livestock included) to a smallish specified area. After the specified date and outside the specified area the authorities would shoot first and ask questions later. Though this system was unpleasant, if applied in places like Helmand, it would make life a lot more difficult for the Taliban and avoid the loss of innocent lives. The Americans should work out a variant of this approach for their strategy in Afghanistan.
No one seems to have much idea of what Afghanistan is supposed to be like in years to come, of what success would look like. If the west succeeded in Afghanistan, what other country would it most resemble?
* ‘Bugles and a Tiger’ John Masters
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One problem Afghanistan almost certainly won’t be presenting to the wider world is its own sovereign wealth fund worth trillions of dollars. In a sense, countries like China with these funds have succeeded to well; they now want to turn back globalisation and buy up assets in America and Europe (and elsewhere). The Americans were happy enough to see the Chinese and other Asian countries buying US Treasury bills but they are worried now that US companies are the attraction. Assets like these are more sensitive because the world economy could be destabilised by these unaccountable sovereign funds. Why the Chinese should want to destabilise anything is unexplained. The Chinese are already facing pressure to up-value their currency (and thereby devalue the dollars they received in vast quantities and in good faith) and now the US is saying that they shouldn’t be allowed to spend their dollars as they see fit either. This must be very provoking for the Chinese authorities but they can’t allow themselves to be provoked because their own economy could easily capsize.
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On the home front it’s been a two post day for the property website. Client is having a short break in Rome so wants some posts ‘in advance’. This suits me because I’m expecting more work from another source later in the week. So tomorrow there’s two more pieces to be written: Hedge funds and Nicaragua.
On Friday I met up with my old colleagues in Woking who were being made redundant. We ahd a cold spread and drinks in Enzo’s (near Victoria Arch) followed by more drinks at the Sovereigns. Everyone was dry eyed as there’s not a lot of feeling for our erstwhile employer.
Elderly relative has now got a purchaser for old home and has had an offer accepted on retirement apartment. This is cause for rejoicing as the it seems to me that the UK property market doesn’t know if it’s coming or going.
Yesterday afternoon the sun came out so we went for a walk in Royal Common – there’s a handy concrete road so it wasn’t a muddy walk.
I’m hoping to post again in about five days’ time.
