There seems to be a lot to blog about today; I’m not sure where to begin.
I watched Panorama’s ‘Battle of Basra Palace’ on Monday evening. The attacks filmed with mobile phone or digital camera made a deep impression. It didn’t come as a complete surprise that the Iraqis had told the British Army that they were part of the problem in Basra (I seem to remember hearing that before) nor that the withdrawal to the air base was the result of a deal with the Mahdi Army. The proven presence of Iranians in Basra in the final stages of the battle ties in with the illegal arrest of the Royal Navy personnel back in the spring. The Iranians were really interested in increasing their influence in Southern Iraq and the head of the Persian Gulf. Hopefully, the Iraqi Army in Basra City and the British in the air base will be able to work together to prevent that.
As far as the British government is concerned, the real failure seems to be that they don’t offer public opinion any narrative thread to the events in the Middle East. The Prime Minister seems to go hot and cold about the region with visits when he thinks it’ll do his ratings back home a boost and statements that sound like platitudes. Ultimately, a democratic country can’t have a coherent foreign policy unless its politicians work hard at explaining it to the folks back home.
==============================================================================
I’ve been pondering some more about a possible link between Iran stopping the development of weapons grade uranium about the time of the invasion of Iraq. Actually, good effects arising from bad causes aren’t strange at all; it happens all the time. The bad cause isn’t usually the direct cause of the good effect. The good second event normally happens on a different level from the bad first one (my neighbour way-laying me and giving me grief about the garden fence made me miss my train but thank God for that because there was a train crash). Good effects from bad causes trouble us because we know that we can’t intend people ill and well at the same time.
As far as Iran’s nuclear programme is concerned, the attack on Iraq may have been a case of exemplary punishment working. However, the morality of exemplary punishment seems pretty dubious: that’s the way that organised crime uses punishment. We probably won’t know for sure for a long time but it looks as if the US really did see as the invasion of Iraq as just a stage of the war on terror and the Iranians took it as a warning.
=============================================================================
There was lots of discussion about the central banks’ measures to overcome the credit crisis. I’m doubtful about the argument that the banks don’t know how much trouble they are in, the usual explanation forthe caution that they are exercising about lending to one another. I can see that this must be true of a lot of the banks. However, it seems more likely that a few of the banks already know that they are in a lot of trouble but they are keeping quiet about and praying for a miracle. The rest realise this but either don’t know exactly who is up the creek or are keeping quiet about what they know in order not to trigger a full-scale banking crisis or have strong suspicions about some particular banks but fear there may be others out there with similar problems. Central banks’ efforts to loosen up the credit markets aren’t going to solve the problem of banks not lending to one another. The (credit) situation is only going to improve once it becomes apparent who the rogue elephant banks are. So what the central bankers really need to do is set up some sort of amnesty for rogue elephants. As it seems very difficult to incentivise failed investment bankers, the central banks are probably going to need to use threats, too. They could also use whistleblowers to good effect.
As far as Northern Rock is concerned, the timing seems to have gone wrong. The (opposition) politicians and the media all seem to be saying that the takeover of Northern Rock needs to happen as soon as possible but, since the problem in the credit markets would seem to be the biggest obstacle to raising the necessary finance for a successful takeover, wouldn’t it be more sensible to say ‘don’t worry, take as long as you want’. The government switching from keeping things ticking over to outright nationalisation seems to be the surest way for the Treasury to loose billions on the bank. In view of the Northern Rock directors curious silence about the takeover bids (in terms of information provided to shareholders) it looks as if they think drawing things out is the best policy, too.
==============================================================================
On Monday, in strict adherence to the belief that pleasure should come before business, and as it was the first sunny day for ages, I went for a walk near Shackleford. I was only out for 90 minutes but it was great. Work and Christmas preparations have stopped me repeating it. Today it was –4 degrees first thing, the sun has gone in and it’s still very cold. The geraniums are refugees in the dinning room but the diseased spores on the leylandii should be suffering.
