Today's post will return to the subject of Iraq for the first time for a few months as well as covering a things closer to home.

What's happened in Basra this month has been difficult to make sense of. The coverage in the press and on the radio has been meagre compared to all that's been written and said about Iraq in the last five years.

Basically, the Iraqi Army's moves against the Mahdi Army seem to have been more successful than most of the commentators expected or hoped. Yet this seems to be good news that no one much wants to talk about. There are a number of convincing reasons for this but it doesn't augur well. In the US public debate has moved on from Iraq to the credit crisis and, generally, there seems to be an understanding between the presidential candidates that domestic issues should take precedence over foreign policy ones.

In the UK the problem of engaging with the news from Basra is more specific; the Iraqi Army (with American help) seems to be succeeding where the British Army failed for three or four years. This is an oversimplification; the British weren't present in Basra in large enough numbers to achieve the results we've seen in the last few weeks. Since the British withdrew to the Basra airbase (last September?) a number of factors have changed to the advantage of Prime Minister Al Maliki. Firstly, the US surge successes further north, though not unqualified, no longer seem like a flash in the pan, secondly, the condition of the Iraqi Army has had time to make further improvement, and thirdly, possibly,Mr Al Maliki has been able to make some headway in persuading the Iranians to stop interfering in the Basra region (more of that later).

The MoD website has some robust contradictions to views rumours that the Iraqi Army has been weakened by mass desertions and to suggestions that the success of the Iraqi Army (and their American advisers is a humiliation for the British forces.It points out that the Americans weren't specifically invited to go along to Basra but were already attached to Iraqi units when they were based in other parts of the country.

The important point is that the Prime Minister (with the Americana) has been using his time better than people gave him credit for. But western politicians need to carry on talking about Iraq even if they suspect that their voters don't want to hear right now. Otherwise there's a danger that, in dire straits themselves, and with a public that's forgotten about Iraq, they'll be tempted to sell Mr Al Maliki down the river a couple of years hence. In any case, Iraq is strategic and could swing back into the limelight very quickly.

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The New York Times supplement to today's Observer include an analysis of Iran's policy towards Iraq by James Glanz and Alissa Rubin which said that, as far as Basra is concerned, they favour the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq (which backs Mr AL Maliki)over Moqtada al Sadr because the Council back greater autonomy for the Basra region. However, the article notes, the Iranians are opposed to actions against Moqtada al Sadr and the Madhi Army in Baghdad. It looks as if the Iranians hope for an Iraq with a weak central government rather than believing that they can exercise long-term control over the entire country.

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I've been for one walk since last posting. This covered mainly new ground for me. I started by walking from Holdfast Lane westwards towards Haslemere town centre. I crossed main road and followed a lane and a bridlway behind the Lythe Hill Hotel. All this first section of walk - except the lane - was very muddy. The ground is completely saturated. I had intended to take a look at a waterfall marked on the OS map but the mud deterred me. The best part of the walk was once I was out from under the trees and walking past High Barn Farm. A little further on you get a superb view of all the (Surrey) hills to the north and north east. The way back takes you across a gallop and back to the main road (the Petworth Road if you live in Haslemere). I crossed over and went back to my starting point by way of Furnace Place.

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I'm currently working on two different projects, which is making me busy so I don't expect to take any longish walks for a week or so.