Today's post will include something on the following:
1. 42 day detention
2. Northern Rock's nationalisation
3. Stock Market
4. Personal stuff
I've been having difficulty deciding what to make of the House of Commons vote on 42 days' detention. On the one hand I'd like Gordon Brown to be given a chance to get on with the task of navigating us all through the current choppy economic currents (and there does seem to be a clear sense that he needs to get 42 days if he's not to be fatally 'wounded'). On the other hand there doesn't seem to be a lot of proof being aired that 42 days is necessary (This was Philippe Sands argument in The Times on Thursday and it sounds as if Sir John Major was saying the same thing in the same paper on Friday). Some may say that the experience of six weeks' loss of freedom by a handful of innocent people does not seem so serious in comparison to the scores of lives that might be saved as a result. But you only have to imagine being detained for so long yourself (especially if you have vulnerable dependents) to realise that being incarcerated for so long could be a terrible experience. Also, those who might be detained and then not charged are most likely to be from the very groups that genuine terrorists are drawn from. Longer detention could create martyrs and be a fertile breeding ground for further terrorist recruits.
All in all the situation is reminiscent of the Commons vote on Iraq with the suggestion that those who know best should be trusted and the Parliamentary Labour Party following some special logic of its own that doesn't include being prepared to live with the consequences of what it votes for.
That said, the government's concessions to MPs concerns in everything except the length of time is a good sign. Government concessions to Parliament almost always are a good sign until complete paralysis sets in.
So I'm agains the detention legislation but not at all sure that I want the Prime Minister to lose his job over the issue. Indeed, the crowing about the PM's unpopularity seems badly misplaced. The whole country has a lot at stake in the country's (and the world's) economic managament over the next 18 months. Thinking on this subject yesterday, I wondered if the economic situation really was so dire but the news about oil prices and US unemployment figures convinced me that it was.
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Now that judicial review is being sort by the shareholders of Northern Rock about the terms of the nationalisation the government won't be making any concessions in this quarter (not willingly at any rate. What's puzzling about the whole story is that, while the commentators keep saying how exceptional the circumstances are, they and most of the parties involved speak as if there were clear precedents for them to be guided by.
As far as the government is concerned, with the likelihood that they will be able to sell the Rock as a going concern in about 2011, it does seem as if the shareholders should receive something. Otherwise, given the state of the government's finances, you can't help but wonder if the future privatisation of the bank atan enormous profit is seen as a clever wheeze to plug part of the deficit.
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The London stock market continues to bump along in the same range. This level performance is unusual for recent times. Given all the financial distress in other kinds of investment, staying level seems highly desirable. The question is what factors are keeping the market so calm. There seems to be an appreciation that a lot of stocks are undervalued when their earnings (and in some cases their dividends) are considered. However, that factor could attract both long term investors, who are prepared to wait monnths or years for an upturn, and speculators who will be hoping for (and possibly desperately needing) an improvement very quickly. Some time soon they are going to realise that they're not going to get it and sell up. If that's the case the stock market could take a significant dive sometime soon.
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It will be interesting to see if any direct action in the oil market arises from the meeting of the G8 plus China, India and South Korea in Japan this weekend. Might the western governments be hoping to persuade the Chinese to use some of their dollars to spoil the tactics of those who are speculating in oil futures?
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On a personal note, I've been for one walk. At Shackleford; it wasn't a great success because I was struck down with hay fever. That's what I called it anyway. When I got home I took some piriton to stop the sneezing but then I could hardly keep awake.
Yesterday, we went to the beach at East Wittering for a barbeque - but I forgot the barbeque bucket! I'm not having much success with this bucket; the first time I used it I burned a whole in the lawn at home. Anyway, I went to tesco to buy a disposable one and we had our barbeque though it took about 30 matches to get it alight.
I've taken delivery of two composters to replace the onetime compost heap behind the garden shed. The garden has just reached that point where a lot of the shrubs need urgent attention or they'll be too tall to manage.
On the work front, I've begun writing another book. The first one is due out in September (I believe).
I've been reading a book called 'God's Undertaker' by John Lennox. He's a mathematician and the book is a look at the scientific arguments in favour of (mono)theistic belief. Although it's written for lay people, it's fairly hard work but well worth the effort. It will be interesting to see if some of his arguments become aired more widely in the future; I hope they do. However, I was sorry that Lennox doesn't seem to credit the existence of parallel universes.
