Long time working but today's post will include something on the following:
1. Coalition government
2. The media
3. Embezzlement
4. The station
5. Byzantium
Tuesday's news about disagreement in the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP)over the part privatisation of the Royal Mail made cooperation between the government look more imminent than I had expected. A couple of days later the possibility of the government being rescued by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats looks less likely but it set me to thinking some more about how a coalition might come about.
I can't see the discipline of the PLP breaking down completely because the government AND the rank and file both want to keep on spending huge amounts of money - and that, to me, does seem the right way to go or a while. In fact, theoretically the BIG SPEND could carry on for as long as there were no financial interests with sufficient clout to call a halt to it by announcing that they had lost confidence in the government, the UK economy and Sterling.
Right now there don't seem to be any obvious candidates - powerful financial interests that are inclined to give the Uk economy yet another kick. Jim Rogers expressed a pessimistic view of Sterling a few weeks back but it's not clear that talking down the currency will do any investors any good now.(It might if there was a real panic as money would flood out looking for safety someplace else and whatever it went into would benefit. At the moment that doesn't see to be happening; the low value of Sterling is causing investors to stick with cash or invest at home. As a result the London stock market seems to be doing slightly better than the US one.)
The likely flash point in this benign scenario of the UK government(and others)spending their way out of recession and collaborating with one another for the greater good is some kind of global shortage. This could be an oil shortage triggered by some conflict in the Middle East - though that seems unlikely. Alternatively a food shortage great enough to give a really big boost to the cost of living might be the spark. Any event causing a spike in inflation would cause a real flight from weak currencies and then spend, spend, spend would have to be reined in. That would trigger a political crisis (pretty quickly) and a coalition government would start to look a lot more likely.
Earlier today I was reading another doom scenario that involved the Chinese refusing to buy sovereign debt from Eurozone countries whose finances are in bad shape (like Italy and Greece). This would lead to a Eurozone crisis and a sharp fall in the value of the Euro. I think this would be a dollar shortage crisis instead of commodity shortage crisis. It wouldn't do the UK any good either as there would be a sharp drop in the demand for London hotel accommodation, whisky, shortbread and other items we export.
This is all scare-mongering in a way but the point is that the individual countries and nations collectively need to work really hard at making sure these things don't get out of control. This takes us back to the idea that the government has too much to watch out for to be able to indulge in normal party politics.
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One of the surprising trends of the last few months is just how negative the media have turned out to be about what's happening to the economy. There's a lot of sober analysis that's helpful but on the whole objectivity has flown out of the window.
Another feature of news coverage in 2009 has been the media's lack of interest in what's going on (and going wrong)everywhere else. The hearings of the Treasury Select Committee and news about Sir Fred Goodwin's pension may be interesting but they tell us precious little about how the UK is going to get out of this mess - recovery and stimulus packages in China or America tell us more. And protests in Eastern Europe show us more about the shape of things to come.
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We've been mesmerised by the Madoff and Stanford scandals but they don't really tell us a lot about what the future holds. JK Galbraith in his book on the 1919 crash pointed out that embezzlment(s) came to light after bubbles burst because fraud was easier to hide when money was easy.
Accountability works best as a check rather than punishment.
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No walk this week so far but one item of local news is the car park at the local station has been extended. The station is about 13 minutes walk away or 10 minutes from the edge of the village. Consequently, there are relatively few people who can conveniently walk there - the road has street lamps and a (very narrow) pavement but it's also liable to floods in wet weather.
Recently, I had occasion to park in the car park at lunchtime but discovered the cheap rate for a ticket only started at 4 pm (instead of 10 am)and the cost of an ordinary car parking ticket had gone up to £4.50. This means that most people who want to catch a train to Guildford in the middle of the day are paying as much to park a car as for a cheap day return ticket.
Clearly, it's worthwhile for Network Rail to make the car park as big as they can though whether there are that many more folk who can afford to use it is another matter. It doesn't look as if the car park extension has gone quite according to plan. A four foot high bank has been tarmac-ed over and markings painted over the top but at present there are plastic barriers to stop you using this section, presumably because it's too steep to drive up.
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The train ride was actually to go and see the Byzantium Exhibition at the Royal Academy. Interesting stuff but rather gloomy setting. The best items were the humble glazed pots with a peacock motif. The valuable Christian works didn't appeal so much; it seemed the artists and craftsmen were just too sure they knew what was what so I ended up feeling crowded out of the spiritual space.
